How Many Orders Does Your Restaurant Need?

“We will do $60,000 a month” is a target. A forecast explains the orders behind it, and a break-even calculation tells you whether those orders would be enough.

Build one month you can explain

Use orders × average basket × open days. Keep sales tax and tips out of the basket. If you use guests instead of orders for table service, use spend per guest throughout.

Here is the base sales example in the opening planner: 22 open weekdays and four open weekend days, or 26 days total.

That gives 2,220 orders and $48,380 in base sales. It is a fictional example, not a prediction for your neighborhood. The weighted base basket is $48,380 ÷ 2,220 = $21.79, approximately.

The workbook assumes 40% of those same orders use a delivery app and a 15% delivery menu markup. That adds $2,902.80 to sales, bringing the normal month to $51,282.80. It does not add a second set of delivery orders. App commissions and packaging are then deducted as costs.

Now ask how many orders you need

Start with contribution per order = sales per order − costs that change with that order. Include food, packaging and applicable transaction or platform fees. Then divide the monthly costs that contribution must cover by the contribution per order.

For a separate, simpler example, assume an $18 basket and $7 of variable costs. Each order contributes $11. If payroll and fixed operating bills total $25,000, operating break-even is $25,000 ÷ $11 = 2,272.73 orders, or 88 orders per open day over 26 days, rounded up.

If you also need $4,000 for owner pay and $1,000 for debt payments, the cash target becomes $30,000. That requires 2,727.27 orders, or 105 per day. The difference is your livelihood and financing, not a rounding error. The break-even calculator lets you change these inputs.

Test the busiest hour, not just the daily average

Suppose 60% of an 80-order dinner arrives between 6 and 8 PM. That is 24 orders an hour. If each order averages two entrées, the kitchen needs 48 entrées an hour, plus sides and any re-fires.

Time a realistic order mix. Record the slowest station's completed items per 15 minutes while someone also handles pickup bags, dishes and restocking. If the station can only deliver 32 entrées an hour, the forecast needs a different menu, equipment, staffing or order schedule. A sales target cannot increase a fryer's capacity.

Find evidence for the demand

• Observe the actual lunch and dinner windows on several ordinary weekdays and a weekend. Count relevant potential customers, not every passing car.
• Buy from nearby alternatives. Record prices, wait times, busy periods, the food people actually order and pickup access.
• Run a permitted paid test at the price you intend to charge. Record paid orders and repeat purchases separately from compliments and free samples.
• Write down why each service period should work: nearby workers, residents, a missing cuisine, a faster lunch, or an existing customer base you can actually reach.

Finally reduce orders by 20% without changing prices. In the planner's base example, sales fall to $41,026.24. Leave staffing alone first. If that exposes a cash shortage, solve a real cost or demand problem before signing; do not simply restore the optimistic order count.